LineMath

Spread to Moneyline Converter — NFL & NBA

A point spread and a moneyline are two prices on the same game. This converter estimates the fair moneyline for any NFL or NBA spread — and, going the other way, the spread implied by a pair of moneylines after the vig is removed.

How the estimate works

P(favorite wins) = Φ(points / σ)       σ ≈ 13.5 (NFL), 12 (NBA)
fair favorite odds = 1 / P
fair underdog odds = 1 / (1 − P)

Examples (estimates)

  • NFL -3: about a 58.8% favorite, fair moneyline ≈ -143 / +143.
  • NFL -7: about 69.8%, fair moneyline ≈ -231 / +231.
  • NBA -5: about 66.2%, fair moneyline ≈ -196 / +196.

These are fair, no-vig numbers; real moneylines add margin, and around key numbers they run steeper than this model. For a market's true fair price, devig it with the no-vig calculator.

FAQ

How do you convert a point spread to a moneyline?

Estimate the favorite's chance of winning outright from the spread, then convert that probability to odds. This calculator treats the final scoring margin as a bell curve around the spread, which gives a fair (no-vig) moneyline estimate.

How accurate is the conversion?

It is a statistical estimate, usually within a few percentage points of real markets, but it is weakest around NFL key numbers. Because 3 and 7 are such common margins, actual moneylines on 3- and 7-point favorites are typically somewhat steeper than the estimate. Treat it as a guide, not a price.

What is a key number?

A final margin that occurs far more often than its neighbors. In the NFL, 3 and 7 are the big ones, which is why half a point around them is worth so much more than half a point elsewhere.

Why are NFL and NBA different?

Basketball scores more and varies less game to game relative to the spread, so the same spread means a higher win probability in the NBA than in the NFL. The calculator uses a standard deviation of about 13.5 points for the NFL and 12 for the NBA.