Break-Even Win Rate Calculator — Sports Betting
The most useful number in betting is the one you have to beat. Enter your average odds and your win-loss record to see the break-even win rate, how many wins you need to be profitable, and your profit and ROI so far.
The formulas
break-even win rate = 1 / decimal odds profit (units) = wins × (decimal − 1) − losses ROI = profit / (wins + losses) fewest wins to profit in n bets = floor(n / decimal) + 1
Worked example
At -110 you need 52.38%. A 55-45 record earns 55 × 0.909 − 45 = +5.0 units on 100 bets — a 5% ROI — while 52-48 loses 0.7 units, even though it is a winning record.
- Lower the bar by shopping for cheaper prices — see the vig calculator.
- Check whether a bet clears the bar with the EV calculator.
- Size bets to your edge with the Kelly calculator.
FAQ
What win rate do I need to break even betting -110?
52.38%. At -110 you risk $110 to win $100, so you must win more than 52.38% of bets to profit — about 53 wins out of every 100.
How is the break-even win rate calculated?
It is 1 divided by the decimal odds. At +150 (2.50 decimal) the break-even rate is 40%; at -200 (1.50) it is 66.67%.
Why can I win more than half my bets and still lose money?
Because the vig sets the break-even rate above 50%. At -110 a 52% win rate loses money; 55-45 makes 5 units on 100 bets, a 5% return.
What does ROI mean here?
Return on investment: profit divided by total amount wagered, assuming one unit per bet at the same odds. Different stake sizes or odds will change the real figure.